Sustainable choices frequently cost more, and pretending otherwise does the argument no favours. Energy is the reliable exception, and this winter it is a larger exception than usual.
What has changed
Dutch TTF futures, Europe’s main gas benchmark, have climbed roughly 120% since the start of 2026, reaching about €63.7/MWh on 18 August.
Forecasts for the coming winter are moving toward an average near €60/MWh for Q4 2026 and Q1 2027, from €45/MWh currently, with some analysis suggesting over €100/MWh may be needed to divert flexible US LNG from Asia. Gas and electricity bills could rise if this feeds through to consumers.
The uncomfortable part of the cause
One driver deserves attention because it connects the two arguments directly.
Record temperatures are pushing up electricity demand while drought and heat curb hydro and nuclear generation. That forces gas-fired power stations to fill part of the gap just as Europe should be putting gas into storage.
So the weather is simultaneously raising demand and removing the cleanest available supply. This is not a seasonal fluctuation; it is a structural vulnerability that recurs as summers get hotter and drier.
Reducing energy demand is therefore not only a household saving. It is a response to the mechanism producing the price.
Where the returns actually are
Draught-proofing. Costs little, works immediately, and is consistently underrated relative to more visible measures.
Hot water temperature. Water heating is a large share of household energy and the setting is usually higher than needed.
Heating schedule. Heating an empty house is the most common avoidable waste, and it is a settings change rather than a purchase.
Old appliances that run constantly. A fridge or freezer more than a decade old can consume several times what a current model does. This is where replacement genuinely pays back.
What to be careful about
Do not lock a long fixed-price contract at a peak. If prices normalise, a contract signed at the top costs for years afterward.
Be sceptical of expensive quick fixes. Products marketed around an energy crisis are rarely the best value; insulation and behaviour are dull and effective.
Measure before replacing. A monitored circuit tells you which appliance to replace. Guessing usually replaces the wrong one.
The honest summary: this winter, the cheapest kilowatt-hour and the cleanest one are the one you do not use. That alignment is rarer than it should be, and worth using while it holds.
